ERCOT Weekly 10-Oct-2022

South Texas 2 into refueling, Wind up, Solar down. Growth tepid.

Weekly Load

The weekly system average power load expectation is 46.9 GW compared to 44.4 GW last week. Daily peak loads are in the mid 50s GW to mid 60s GW area this week.

Predicted precipitation is more extensive this week with most in the West and Panhandle. The extended forecast is wet next week.

The soil moisture deficit expanded further this past week. This is less of an issue in the fall and winter. The rain should lower deficits in the North and West.

Here is last week’s soil moisture map.

Generation

We are estimating 8.31 GW as the average coal generation level for this week. Last week the actual came in at 7.77 GW.

Coal power production has been at the bottom of the 5-year band and that is not expected to rise appreciably. The forecasted increase is assuming coal will pick up some of the nuclear that is out for refueling, and this may not be correct.

Natural gas power generation this week is estimated higher this week: 24.25 vs. 22.21 GW. This week’s natural gas use is at the upper limit of the 5-year range.

Nuclear generation is expected to be about 3.79 GW versus 4.92 GW last week. Refueling appears to have begun at South Texas 2.

Wind is projected higher this week at 7.70 GW versus 5.82 GW last week and 8.34 GW the week before. This week’s wind forecast is in the lower portion of the 5-year band indicating below normal wind production. Wind appears to be serving most of the increased load this year.

Solar is forecasted to be steady at 2.67 GW this week. Last week, 24-hour averaged solar electric production was 3.41 GW. The skies are cloudier, and next week’s forecast is for more rain, so the trend should continue.

ERCOT Load Growth