ERCOT Daily 28-Jun-2022

Load and Load Forecast

Peak load yesterday was 71,985 MW, 1.5 % lower than yesterday’s forecast of 73,100 MW. The peak load and daily minimum load streaks of being above the 5-year band continue. but could end today for the minimum load.

The average daily load for yesterday (ending this morning) is 56,440 MW (Monday’s forecast was 55,610 MW). See the table below for daily values.

ERCOT’s peak load for today is forecasted lower than yesterday’s actual load with a peak load of 69,900 MW, continuing to be above the upper edge of the 5-year bands. Tomorrow the peak load heads slightly higher to 69,900 MW.

So far, the actual loads have stayed under ERCOT’s summer “Extreme Risk” scenario of 77,317 MW. Peak load this year (and all-time) is currently 76,592 MW which happened last Thursday (22-Jun-2022) at 5 PM CDT.

For weekly averages this week (ending this coming Friday 1-Jul 15Z), the average power is estimated to be 57.96 GW (up 0.26 GW from yesterday). The verification for last week ending last Friday 24-Jun 15Z was 60.75 GW.

Weather Forecast

Temperatures in all of Texas have fallen to the near-normal range. The cool-down appears to be short-lived given the temperature forecasts.

Houston temperatures are also now showing cooling for this week. Longer term, more precipitation is in the forecast, so this trend may continue.

The 7-Day QPF is showing more rain across the state. More of the state gets at least some precipitation in today’s forecast.

NHC latest issuance has a storm off the Texas Coast that is causing the rain shown above in the precipitation forecast. The bulk of the rain on the coast hits on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Two is expected to travel along the South American coast and hit Nicaragua before heading into the Pacific. The next one is a few days out still.

Generation and Generation Forecast

Wind supply has crashed and will be lower for the next two days before recovering somewhat. This is not a strong wind regime.

This week (ending this coming Friday 1-Jul 15Z) the average wind power forecast is 910.70 GW (up 1.34 GW from yesterday), lower than last week (ending Friday 24-Jun 15Z) which was 12.36 GW. The week prior was 19.85 GW. See the table below for this week’s daily estimates.

Solar supplied was near expectations yesterday. Today, our model (red line) is in good agreement with the ERCOT forecast which is forecasting slightly lower solar supply. We differ slightly with the upcoming rain where our forecast is about 10% lower.

This week’s solar forecast (ending this coming Friday 1-Jul 15Z) is a DC average solar power of 3.86 GW (up 0.03 GW from yesterday), higher last week’s 4.08 GW (ending 24-Jun) and 3.54 GW the week before.

Nuclear dispatch this week (ending this coming Friday, 1-Jul) is estimated at 5.00 GW. Last week’s value was 5.01 GW. The NRC is reporting in a timely fashion.

Coal dispatch this week is forecasted at 9.18 GW (up 0.01 GW from yesterday) ending this Friday, 1-Jul. Last week’s average coal-based power estimate was 9.50 GW and the week before was 9.57 GW. Coal output is expected to remain (relatively) strong.

Coal and natural gas numbers are model estimates and today, we are estimating coal’s portion for last week as the EIA feed is currently not being updated and hasn’t since 17-Jun. We have assumed that coal is running as baseload and that is is slightly lower this week with the lower loads.