ERCOT Daily 23-Aug-2022

No wind until the weekend.

Load and Load Forecast

Peak load yesterday was 61,937 MW, 5.1% lower than forecasted yesterday of 65,200 MW. Peak load came in below the bottom of the trailing 5-year band, and the daily minimum load was inside the minimum load band from the trailing 5 years. The clouds and rain kept temperatures lower which held down the load.

The average daily load for yesterday (ending this morning) is 52,440 MW (Yesterday’s forecast was for 53,910 MW). See the table below for daily values.

Today, ERCOT’s peak load forecast is 61,300 MW, about the same as yesterday and still below the 5-year band. Tomorrow the peak load is just higher at 62,500 MW. Loads rise slightly going forward, but they are still low for this year.

For weekly averages this week (ending this Friday 26-Aug 15Z), the average power is estimated to be 53.20 GW (down 0.80 GW from yesterday). The verification for last week ending last Friday 19-Aug 15Z was 58.78 GW.

Dallas had even more rain yesterday. Temperatures are on the lower bound of the trailing 20-year band with a high of only 80 F. Temperatures are hugging the bottom of the trailing 20-year band, and they are expected to be below the mean for the next week at least.

Houston is now getting the rain, and lower temperatures are the expectation for the foreseeable forecast.

The quantitative precipitation forecast has progressed some with clearer skies in the West region, so more solar will be expected. Rain is still strong in the South and Coast regions. Week 2 is still looking wet.

Wind supply is net-net lower this week. Wind has fallen below 5 GW and will remain there until Friday evening. Yikes.

This week (ending this Friday 26-Aug 15Z) the average wind power forecast is 5.87 GW (up 0.29 GW from yesterday), lower than last week (ending Friday 19-Aug 15Z) which was 7.11 GW. The week prior was 8.31 GW. See the table below for this week’s daily estimates.

Solar production is down to about the 70% production level with cloudier skies. The forecast has clearer skies starting tomorrow, but peak production is still near 8,000 MW.

This week’s solar forecast (ending this Friday 26-Aug 15Z) is a 24-hour average solar power of 2.56 GW (down 0.07 GW from yesterday), lower than last week’s 3.30 GW (ending 19-Aug). Supply was 3.62 GW the week before that.

Nuclear dispatch this week (ending Friday, 26-Aug) is estimated at 5.00 GW. Last week’s value was also 4.99 GW.

Coal dispatch this week is forecasted at 9.52 GW (down 0.22 GW from yesterday) ending this Friday, 26-Aug. Last week, coal power generation averaged 9.44 GW.