ERCOT Daily 19-Feb-2025

Record load expected tomorrow. Capacity appears able.

Load and Load Forecast

Peak hourly load yesterday was 63,486 MW, 8.4% higher than yesterday’s forecast of 58,600 MW. Peak load was above the upper band of the trailing 5-year maximum load range (morning peak). The daily minimum load (morning) was also above the upper band of the 5-year minimum load range. (The ranges average over 5 years and one week either side.)

The average daily load for yesterday was 60,670 MW versus Yesterday’s estimate of 56,710 MW. See the table below for the forward daily estimates.

ERCOT’s peak load forecast for today is 76,300 MW. The forecast for tomorrow is winter record level at 82,900 MW. Record load is 85,559 MW from 20-Aug-2024 and winter peak from 16-Jan-2024 had a peak load of 78,314 MW.

For weekly averages this week ending this coming Friday 21-Feb 15Z, the average power is estimated to be 58.55 GW, up 1.17 GW from yesterday’s estimate. The verification for last week ending last Friday 14-Feb 15Z was 51.79 GW and 46.89 GW the week before.

Weather

The Dallas area temperatures coming in slightly lower than forecasted. This is definitely a cold regime but not at Uri levels which can be seen in the plot as the lower left part of the 20-year band.

Coastal temperatures are also slightly lower than forecasted but again not at Uri levels.

Today, NOAA’s 7-Day QPF is dry until rain comes in Days 3-5 in SE Texas.

Generation

Wind supply heads lower today, just when the cold comes in.

This week ending this coming Friday (21-Feb 15Z) the average wind power forecast is 16.51 GW, lower by 0.20 GW and higher than last week (ending Friday 14-Feb 15Z) which was 11.96 GW. The week prior was 15.14 GW.