ERCOT Daily 16-Feb-2023

Quick cold coming. Free power this morning, though.

Load and Load Forecast

Peak load yesterday was 46,602 MW, 2.9% lower than yesterday’s forecast of 47,700 MW. Peak load was at the bottom portion of the trailing 5-year maximum load band, and the daily minimum load was in the middle range of the 5-year minimum load band. (The bands average over 5 years and one week either side.)

The average daily load for yesterday (ending this morning) is 42,470 MW (Yesterday’s estimate was 43,010 MW).

ERCOT’s peak load forecast for today is higher than yesterday at 51,200 MW. Tomorrow’s forecasted peak load moves higher to 57,300 MW. Friday’s peak is in the moring with the chilled air.

For weekly averages this week (ending this Friday 17-Feb 15Z), the average power is estimated to be 44.40 GW (down 0.05 GW from yesterday). The verification for last week ending last Friday 10-Feb 15Z was 43.45 GW.

North Texas temperatures are moving to below normal, bottoming out on Friday when the load hits a local high on Friday morning.

Houston and the Coast Zone temperatures are head below normal today with temperatures dropping all day. Temperatures head back to above normal after the weekend.

Very little precipitation in today’s QPF, all of it is in the Day 6-7 bucket. Solar forecast suggests clouds beginning Saturday however.

Generation

Wind supply curtailed yesterday and today with the high supply level. Wind heads lower tomorrow evening but only for a day.

This week (ending this Friday 17-Feb 15Z) the average wind power forecast is 16.10 GW (down 0.22 GW from yesterday), nearly the same as last week (ending Friday 10-Feb 15Z) which was 16.50 GW. The week prior was 9.66 GW. See the table below for this week’s daily estimates.

Solar supply was left stranded again yesterday due to the stronger and cheaper wind. Solar looks like it gets hit by clouds on Saturday which is a slighly new development. The supply is still strong, however.