ERCOT Daily 1-Apr-2021
[Editor’s Note: Plan is to report on ISOs daily and along with a daily national report. Today will just be ERCOT, but other reports will ramp up over the next couple of weeks. All content is free until things start to stabilize.]
Load and Load Forecast
System load remains in the lower annual range and in the middle to upper end of the trailing 5-year range for this time of year. Today temperatures are in the range requiring minimal cooling or heating. Demand is set to increase next week as temperatures rise.
Weather Forecast
Temperatures are below seasonal average for the next couple of days. Solar and wind are still relatively strong. Look for a temperature rebound next week where temperatures are projected to reach the 90s in southern zones by mid-next week. [Note: The forecasts are on CDT but the station data are on CST.]
Generation and Generation Forecast
Wind generation availability remains above the 10,000 MW level today with wind supply going to the 20,000 MW level on Friday. Weekend looking a little weaker before more blasting early next week. As demand increases, the potential for the wind values to exceed 20,000 MW increases.
Yesterday’s solar was again stronger than we were thinking, but within the displayed forecast. We are diligently working on the quantitative assessment of just how much is available and how much is curtailed and hope to report on this soon. Today solar generation should exceed the 5,000 MW level and tomorrow also. The weekend solar forecast, despite its reduction from the day before, may still be too optimistic. A bit of uncertainty in terms of solar generation this weekend.
Today the stack model shows strong solar and wind dominating at the margin as they will be today and tomorrow. Model suggesting curtailments are strong on Friday.
Comanche Peak 1 nuclear unit posted 58% power this morning, about the same as yesterday. South Texas 2 is in refueling. We do not know the reason for the Comanche Peak reactor power reduction. It went through refueling last fall. South Texas 2 should return mid-April.
More interestingly is the potential at the end of the forecast for more thermal supply required as the temperatures rise and the wind potentially subsides.
Price Action
Real-time prices yesterday had a little bit of action. Note the Panhandle is re-entering the negative price region later today and the bulk of the day today shows no major pricing spikes once we are out of the morning ramp. Tomorrow prices should stay low with the Panhandle staying negative most if not all of the day.
